29th August 2026 – (Hong Kong) Parents packing school bags for Tuesday’s term start face a damp outlook after the Hong Kong Observatory warned that a low-pressure area may develop over the northern South China Sea early next week and skim waters south of the territory around opening day.
At 11.30am today the Observatory said a broad trough would keep Guangdong’s coast and the northern South China Sea unsettled for the next two to three days, and that a low might form on that trough from early to mid-week — though its track and strength remain uncertain. Yesterday’s wording had been softer, noting only that a low might exist along the trough. A low-pressure area is the usual first step before a tropical cyclone can develop.
Earth Weather charts on the Observatory website show European and artificial-intelligence models — including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF’s AIFS, Fengwu, Fuxi and Pangu — broadly agreeing that the potential system forms near Hainan Island on Monday, 31st August, then crosses the South China Sea east-northeastwards. Several runs place it over southern waters near Hong Kong on Tuesday, 1st September. Fengwu and Pangu then steer it towards Taiwan, while Fuxi and ECMWF AIFS favour Fujian. Officials stress those AI fields are raw computer output, not adjusted by scientific officers, and that path and intensity still vary widely between models.
The nine-day forecast still expects showers rather than a confirmed typhoon signal for the first school morning. Tuesday looks mainly cloudy with a few showers, heavier rain and thunderstorms in places at first, then brief sunshine in the afternoon, urban temperatures from 27C to 31C, and north to northeasterlies force 4, occasionally 5 offshore and on high ground. Monday is also cloudy with intermittent showers and squally thunderstorms; by Wednesday a stronger northerly may reach force 4 to 5, occasionally 6 on high ground, with only one or two showers and sunny intervals.
A drier continental airstream should gradually reach southern China later next week, reducing showers from Thursday onwards, though further brief rain remains possible into the following weekend. White Dew, the twenty-four solar term that traditionally marks autumn’s cooling turn, falls on Monday, 7th September.
Meanwhile tropical depression Saudel was centred about two hundred kilometres south-southwest of Nanchang at noon, moving west-southwest at about eighteen kilometres an hour across inland eastern China and expected to weaken further, with its remnants affecting western southern China over the next day or two. Separately, a low may form over the northwest Pacific east of the Philippines and drift towards seas east of Taiwan. Tropical cyclones Aitao and Banlang have already formed farther out over the northwest Pacific; probability charts show neither threatening Hong Kong, Taiwan or the mainland. Very Hot Weather Warning and the Labour Department’s yellow Work Heat Stress Warning remained in force this afternoon as southwest winds stayed light and heat mixed with scattered showers and thunderstorms.