31st October 2026 – (New York) Gold extended a sharp weekly retreat into the weekend, breaking decisively under $4,000 an ounce and touching levels last seen on 6th October 2025. By late trade, spot bullion hovered near $3,880, down about 3.5 per cent on the day and nearly 3 per cent on the week, as investors weighed weakening equity sentiment, shifting interest‑rate expectations and an upswing in energy costs. Silver fell more steeply, sliding below $50 to around $48.95, almost 6 per cent lower on the day and roughly 9 per cent down since last Friday, its heaviest weekly decline since early June.
The selling came despite a softer US dollar and easing Treasury yields at points in the session, conditions that would typically offer support to non‑yielding assets. Traders instead focused on inflation risks from higher crude prices and the prospect that the Federal Reserve could keep policy tight for longer. Although the Fed left rates unchanged mid‑week, futures markets continued to assign a high probability to another increase in December and potential follow‑through into the first quarter of 2027, reinforcing headwinds for bullion.
Market strategists said oil’s climb has muddied gold’s safe‑haven appeal in the short term. Phillip Streible of Blue Line Futures said the inflation impulse from elevated crude is commanding attention, noting that gold tends to fare better when central banks are cutting to cushion growth rather than signalling further tightening while the economy expands. Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets, said bullion’s direction hinges on how incoming data reshape the rate outlook, with any clear moderation in the labour market and core inflation likely to be pivotal in reviving support.
Some analysts highlighted potential catalysts for a turn in sentiment. Simon‑Peter Massabni of XS.com said three developments could alter the trajectory: a discernible cooling in US jobs growth and wages, a sustained decline in underlying inflation, and a downward repricing of real yields and future policy rates. Others framed the latest slump as at least partly technical. Jeff Sarti of Morton Wealth pointed to deeply negative sentiment indicators that, from a contrarian standpoint, can coincide with attractive entry points for longer‑term buyers.
From a chart perspective, bears remain in control with lower highs and lower lows in place since late August. Prices sit well beneath the 50‑, 100‑ and 200‑day moving averages, keeping momentum negative. Immediate focus is on whether psychological support near $3,900 can hold; a clean break would expose the $3,800 area flagged by several technicians as the next notable zone. On the upside, initial resistance is clustered around $4,000, ahead of $4,100 and the mid‑$4,200 region where key moving averages converge.
Broader cross‑asset dynamics also weighed. A rotation out of high‑beta technology shares on concerns over artificial‑intelligence spending left some investors raising cash and trimming liquid positions, with gold among the first assets sold to meet margin calls. At the same time, war‑related tensions in the Middle East kept energy markets tight, sustaining an inflation narrative that complicates any swift pivot to easier policy.
