8th October 2026 – (Hong Kong) The Hong Kong Observatory has assessed the regional weather outlook and indicated that the chance of the city experiencing direct impact from a tropical cyclone during the rest of October is low. Earlier forecasts at the beginning of the year projected that this year’s typhoon season would likely conclude by October or earlier, and the current evaluation supports this expectation.
So far this year, only three tropical cyclones have entered within 500 kilometres of Hong Kong, with Typhoon Noul prompting the Observatory to issue the number nine signal when it passed nearby. At present, abnormal anticyclonic circulation persists over the South China Sea to the Philippines, a pattern expected to continue into late October. Both the prevailing atmospheric circulation and sea conditions are considered unfavourable for the formation of tropical cyclones. Even if areas of low pressure develop, the likelihood of intensification into a significant storm remains limited.
While tropical cyclone activity in the northwest Pacific continues to be active, prevailing flow patterns are directing such systems northwards towards Japan. The Observatory will continue to monitor developments in the region and provide timely updates.