3rd October 2026 – (Washington) US stocks climbed after September payrolls undershot forecasts, prompting traders to scale back bets on an interest‑rate increase at the Federal Reserve’s October meeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 0.5 per cent, the S&P 500 added roughly 0.7 per cent and the Nasdaq Composite advanced about 1.2 per cent, having touched an intraday record earlier in the session. The Nasdaq finished the week higher, while the Dow and S&P 500 posted weekly declines.
The Labour Department reported the economy created an estimated 29,000 jobs in September against expectations for around 90,000, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.2 per cent versus a forecast of 4.1 per cent. Following the release, money markets priced a markedly lower probability of an October rate increase, with odds falling to about 16 per cent from roughly 64 per cent a week earlier. Treasury yields fell initially before reversing, leaving the 10‑year near 5.28 per cent and the 30‑year around 5.63 per cent by the close.
Large‑cap technology outperformed, with chipmakers helping to lead gains as investors rotated back into growth stocks on the view that policy rates may stay on hold. Nvidia briefly notched an intraday high. Bitcoin also pushed above 85,000 dollars as crypto markets responded to the softer macro backdrop and seasonally favourable patterns flagged by some strategists.
Commentary from the White House and the Federal Reserve reinforced the cautious stance. Chris Phelan said he did not expect additional rate increases this year in light of the labour data and recent cooler inflation readings, echoing remarks from Fed officials who have signalled there is time to assess incoming figures even as inflation remains too high. Separate analysis highlighted that wage growth continued to lag price rises, with average hourly earnings up 0.1 per cent on the month and 3.0 per cent on the year against inflation running at about 3.4 per cent in August.
Energy markets were mixed. Brent crude futures hovered near 102 dollars a barrel amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. G7 nations announced a plan, coordinated by the International Energy Agency, to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel over four months, including a substantial diesel draw within 20 days, in a move aimed at easing price pressures on households and businesses.
