30th September 2023 – (Hong Kong) According to the Hong Kong Observatory, Tropical Storm Koinu is expected to make its way towards Hong Kong next week. As of 10 a.m. today (30th), Koinu was located approximately 1,180 kilometres east of Manila and is projected to move northwest. The Observatory’s tropical cyclone track map indicates that Koinu is likely to approach the Luzon Strait to Taiwan area during the early to midweek next week. By Thursday (5th), it is expected to intensify into a strong typhoon and enter a range of 800 kilometres from Hong Kong. However, the Observatory notes that the path and intensity of Koinu may vary due to the influence of the northeast monsoon.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows that Koinu will pass through the waters south of Taiwan on Thursday and then enter the northern part of the South China Sea, making landfall on Hainan Island on Sunday (8th). On the other hand, the Global Forecast System (GFS) predicts that Koinu will come closer to Hong Kong, crossing Taiwan and moving westward towards the city, making landfall around Yangjiang on Monday (9th).
Currently, an anticyclone aloft is bringing mainly fine and scorching weather to the coast of Guangdong. Some areas in the territory experienced temperatures of 33 degrees Celsius or higher around noon. Inland Guangdong is also facing showers triggered by the high temperatures.
The weather forecast for this afternoon and tonight predicts isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly fine and very hot weather in the afternoon, and cloudy periods at night. Winds will be light to moderate, blowing from the east to northeast.
Looking ahead, tomorrow is expected to bring a few showers, with mainly cloudy conditions in the morning and at night. It will remain very hot during the day, with intermittent sunny periods and a chance of one or two showers in the following days.
Southern China will generally experience fine weather in the next few days due to an anticyclone aloft. However, the region will also be affected by showers and thunderstorms caused by high temperatures. The northeast monsoon will influence the coast of Guangdong, bringing stronger winds over the area in the next couple of days. As for Tropical Cyclone Koinu, it is anticipated to approach the Luzon Strait to Taiwan area early to midweek next week. Thereafter, it may enter the northeastern part of the South China Sea and potentially bring showers to the coast of Guangdong in the latter part of next week. Additionally, another surge of the northeast monsoon is expected to reach southern China during the middle and latter parts of next week. The influence of the northeast monsoon introduces uncertainties in Koinu’s subsequent movement and intensity.