2nd October 2023 – (Hong Kong) Tropical Storm Koinu has intensified into a typhoon in the early hours of today. As of 8am, it was located approximately 1,410 kilometres southeast of Hong Kong. The Observatory predicts that it will enter the northern part of the South China Sea as a super typhoon on Wednesday (4th October) and Thursday (5th October), passing near the southern tip of Taiwan’s Hengchun Peninsula before approaching the coast of Guangdong.
The northeast monsoon is currently affecting the coast of Guangdong, while a high-pressure system is covering southern China. Locally, temperatures rose to around 33 degrees Celsius in some parts of the territory around noon.
At noon, Typhoon Koinu was centred about 840 kilometres northeast of Manila. It is expected to move northwest at a speed of about 12 kilometres per hour towards the vicinity of the Luzon Strait and the southern part of Taiwan, gradually intensifying along its path.
The weather forecast for this afternoon and tonight predicts one or two showers, with very hot and sunny periods in the afternoon. It will be mainly cloudy tonight with moderate to fresh east to northeasterly winds, occasionally strong offshore at first.
Looking ahead, the next couple of days will remain very hot and mainly fine, except for isolated showers. However, the weather is expected to become more unsettled towards the latter part of the week.
An anticyclone aloft will bring mainly fine weather to southern China in the next couple of days, but showers and thunderstorms triggered by high temperatures will affect the region. Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone Koinu will move towards the vicinity of the Luzon Strait and the southern part of Taiwan, gradually intensifying along its path. It may then enter the northeastern part of the South China Sea. In the latter part of the week, the coast of Guangdong can expect windier conditions with showers. Additionally, the northeast monsoon is expected to reach southern China during this period. Due to the influence of the northeast monsoon, there are uncertainties regarding Koinu’s subsequent movement and intensity. It may track along the coastal waters of Guangdong and weaken.
The Observatory emphasises that the path and intensity of Koinu are subject to variables due to the influence of the northeast monsoon. There is a possibility that the typhoon may move along the coastal waters of Guangdong and weaken. The latest tropical cyclone track indicates that Koinu will approach Hong Kong from the east at a distance of approximately 300 kilometres on Saturday morning (7th October). The Observatory predicts that on that day and Sunday (8th October), there will be a northerly wind of force 5, reaching force 7 offshore and on high ground, corresponding to the wind strength of a No. 3 typhoon signal.
As Koinu approaches, the outer subsiding air flow will gradually affect Hong Kong. The next few days will be extremely hot, with the Observatory forecasting a high of 35 degrees Celsius on Wednesday, which could potentially break the October record and become the hottest October day on record.
At 8am today, the Observatory recorded the position of Tropical Cyclone Koinu, which was located approximately 1,410 kilometres southeast of Hong Kong. Over the next two to three days, it will move towards the vicinity of the Luzon Strait and the southern part of Taiwan, gradually intensifying.
Today is the last day of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays. The Observatory indicates that a high-level anticyclone will bring generally fine weather to South China in the next one to two days. However, showers and thunderstorms triggered by high temperatures will affect the region. At noon, temperatures in some parts of Hong Kong rose to around 33 degrees Celsius. There will be sunny and hot periods in the afternoon, with generally cloudy conditions tonight. Winds will be light to moderate, blowing from the east to northeast, occasionally strong offshore.
On Wednesday, Koinu is expected to intensify into a super typhoon and strike the Hengchun Peninsula in southern Taiwan. By 8am, Wednesday, it will have entered the 800-kilometer warning range of Hong Kong, weakening to a strong typhoon. After making landfall in the Hengchun Peninsula on Thursday, it will move closer to the Pearl River Estuary. By 8am, Friday (6th October), it will be within 400 kilometres of Hong Kong, moving approximately 300 kilometres within 24 hours, still as a strong typhoon.
By Saturday (7th October), as Koinu moves to a distance of 300 kilometres from Hong Kong, it will start to weaken.