1st October 2023 – (Hong Kong) “Tropical Storm Koinu” is currently situated in the waters off Manila. It has intensified into a severe tropical storm and is predicted to move towards the Luzon Strait and the southern part of Taiwan, gradually gaining strength. There is a possibility that it will enter the northeastern part of the South China Sea and approach Hong Kong within a range of 800km and 400km on Thursday and Friday (October 5th and 6th) respectively, potentially reaching the status of a strong typhoon. The coastal areas of Guangdong will also experience heavy rain and strong winds during the later part of next week. However, due to the influence of another northeast monsoon, the path and intensity of Tropical Storm Koinu still remain uncertain.
At 4pm, Tropical Storm Koinu was located approximately 920km northeast of Manila and is expected to move northwest at a speed of about 12km per hour, gradually intensifying as it crosses the seas east of the Philippines. According to the tropical cyclone track information provided by the Hong Kong Observatory, it is projected to strengthen into a severe tropical storm by tomorrow and has the potential to further upgrade to a strong typhoon within the next four days. During this period, it may pass between Luzon and Taiwan and enter the range of 800km from Hong Kong on Thursday, with maximum sustained winds near the centre reaching up to 175km per hour. The following day, it could potentially come within 400km of Hong Kong, but with slightly weaker intensity, with sustained winds expected to reach around 165km per hour.
Currently, an anticyclone aloft is bringing mostly fine weather to southern China, while the northeast monsoon is gradually affecting the coast of Guangdong.
The weather forecast for tonight and tomorrow predicts cloudy periods overnight with one or two showers. The minimum temperature is expected to be around 28 degrees Celsius tomorrow morning. During the day, it will be mainly fine and very hot, with the maximum temperature reaching around 33 degrees Celsius. Moderate to fresh east to northeasterly winds will prevail, occasionally becoming strong offshore. The coast of Guangdong will be influenced by the northeast monsoon tomorrow. An anticyclone aloft will bring mostly fine weather to southern China in the next few days, but the region may experience showers and thunderstorms triggered by high temperatures. Additionally, the surge of the northeast monsoon will reach southern China in the middle and latter parts of this week. Due to the influence of the northeast monsoon, there are uncertainties regarding the subsequent movement and intensity of Tropical Storm Koinu.