31st August 2026 – (Moscow) Russia’s regulated cryptocurrency market could handle between 3.5 trillion and 4 trillion roubles in its first year, according to a forecast shared by Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov, who cited SberCIB Investment Research’s estimate that roughly one‑fifth of current activity may migrate onto licensed exchanges. Popov added that annual regulated volumes might climb to about 7.5 trillion roubles by 2029. The interview, published by TASS ahead of the Eastern Economic Forum, also stressed that first‑year volumes are not expected to exceed 4 trillion roubles.
The Bank of Russia has confirmed that a new regulatory framework comes into force on 1st September 2026, enabling both qualified and non‑qualified investors to trade approved cryptoassets through licensed intermediaries, with the central bank maintaining official registers for exchanges and digital depositories. A transition period runs through 1st July 2027 for market participants to obtain licences and align operations with the new requirements.
Under draft implementing rules, non‑qualified investors must pass a knowledge test and will face an annual purchase ceiling of 300,000 roubles per intermediary, while all investors will be subject to testing and risk disclosures. The Bank of Russia’s proposed list of assets initially available for organised public trading includes Bitcoin, Ether and Tether’s USDT, selected against criteria such as market capitalisation, liquidity and overseas price history; the consultation on these proposals closed on 24th August.
Officials have emphasised that cryptocurrency remains barred for ordinary domestic payments in Russia, even as buying and selling are channelled through supervised entities. The central bank’s communications indicate that residents will be able to transact via approved intermediaries and transfer cryptocurrencies abroad through regulated channels, with detailed exchange and depository rules to be finalised as the market launches.
SberCIB’s projection implies that most Russian crypto activity will continue outside the regulated exchange system in the near term, given current estimates of nationwide transactions. Popov’s remarks, together with the Bank of Russia’s staged rollout, suggest that adoption within the licensed perimeter will depend on investor demand, timely registrations and the final scope of assets and products that intermediaries support in the months following 1st September 2026.