11th September 2026 – (Paris) The International Energy Agency has trimmed its 2026 outlook for global oil demand, pointing to the prolonged impasse in United States–Iran negotiations that has delayed any normalisation of Middle East crude flows into next year. In its September Oil Market Report, the agency now expects demand in 2026 to fall by 2.5 million barrels per day, a downgrade of 940,000 barrels per day from its previous estimate, as geopolitical risks curb supply routes and weigh on consumption.
The report said global oil production slipped by 1.6 million barrels per day in August to 100.1 million barrels per day, with more than 10 million barrels per day of Gulf output still offline amid heightened security risks. Observed oil inventories dropped by a further 95 million barrels in August, taking cumulative draws since February to 507 million barrels, or an average of 2.8 million barrels per day. Oil‑on‑water volumes fell by 65 million barrels as tanker movements from the Middle East faced renewed attacks.
Benchmark crude prices have climbed to their highest levels since May, the IEA noted, as efforts to conclude a United States–Iran agreement to end the war in the Middle East remain stalled and hostilities intensify. While stockpiles have helped balance the market to date, the agency warned that buffers are thinning and the global refining system is stretched to the limit, urging swift progress towards resolving conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia–Ukraine war to avert deeper supply tightness and demand destruction.
