5th September 2026 – (Hong Kong) With Tropical Storm Saudel already inland over eastern Guangdong and reduced to a low-pressure area, the Hong Kong Observatory is turning attention to a possible broad low developing over the central South China Sea late next week—and to a return of the northeast monsoon that should freshen local winds from about 10th September.
In a weather update issued yesterday afternoon, the Observatory said light winds would linger along the Guangdong coast for the next two or three days while a broad cloud band over central China edged a little south. A few showers are expected along the coast early next week; as the cloud thins, southern China should turn generally fine in mid-week before the northeast monsoon arrives in the latter part of the week.
At the same time, a broad area of low pressure may gradually take shape over the central South China Sea late next week, bringing unsettled weather there. Separately, Tropical Cyclone Krovanh is forecast to wander near the Ryukyu Islands for the next day or two.
The nine-day outlook has Hong Kong turning to force 4 northeast winds on Thursday, 10th September, occasionally force 5 offshore—described as fresh—before north to northeast force 4 to 5 sets in from Friday, 11th September. That timing matches the monsoon push and the period when models watch the potential South China Sea system.
Artificial-intelligence guidance on the Observatory’s Earth Weather page—from FengWu, Fuxi and Pangu—clusters tightly on both intensity and track. Those runs place the potential low west of the Philippines on Thursday, strengthening as it crosses the central South China Sea on Friday more than 400 kilometres from Hong Kong, then moving northwest to make landfall on Hainan Island on Saturday, 12th September. The European Centre’s AIFS is slower to develop the feature through Saturday, while the conventional ECMWF model keeps it lingering west of the Philippines on Thursday and Friday before a gradual strengthening and slow drift on Saturday. The Observatory stressed that AI charts are raw computer output and have not been adjusted by its scientific officers.
For the near term, today in the urban area is forecast at 27C to 31C with relative humidity 60 to 90 per cent, west to southwest force 2 to 3, sunny periods and local showers later. Sunday, 6th September, stays 27C to 31C under light force 2 winds, mainly cloudy with a few showers and brief sunny breaks.
Monday—White Dew in the Chinese solar terms, often taken as the start of a cooler turn—and Tuesday both run 27C to 32C with force 2 breezes. Monday looks mainly cloudy with one or two showers and short sunny spells; Tuesday should be generally fine. Wednesday and Thursday hold 27C to 31C with sunny periods and local showers, winds easing from east to northeast force 4 on Wednesday into northeast force 4, occasionally 5 offshore, on Thursday.
Friday brings 26C to 31C under north to northeast force 4 to 5 with sunny periods. Saturday, 12th September, and Sunday, 13th September, cool slightly to 26C to 30C, still north to northeast force 4 to 5, mainly cloudy with a few showers and brief daytime sun as the monsoon and the distant low keep the atmosphere unsettled.