24th September 2023 – (Hong Kong) Hong Kong Observatory has reported that an anticyclone aloft will bring clear skies and fine weather to the coast of Guangdong in the next few days. However, attention is drawn to a broad area of low pressure located near the Philippines, which is gradually moving towards the central part of the South China Sea. The intensity and trajectory of this system remain uncertain.
According to the Mainland’s Central Meteorological Observatory, the South China Sea and the northwestern Pacific Ocean are expected to experience the formation of one to two typhoons over the next 10 days. Two major forecasting agencies, the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), have provided their predictions regarding the development of this low-pressure system.
The GFS computer model suggests that the low-pressure system will take shape and strengthen in the middle of next week, heading towards the western part of Guangdong. It is anticipated to make landfall on Hainan Island on the day of the Mid-Autumn Festival, which falls on Friday (29th). On the other hand, the ECMWF predicts that the system will pass approximately 400 kilometres south of Hong Kong, with minimal impact on the city.