21st May 2019 – (Hong Kong) A local English media published an article yesterday about a prediction made by Professor Jucelino Nobrega da Luz five years ago that there is a possibility of an earthquake of magnitude 7.0 hitting Hong Kong on 23rd of May, 2019. The local media has since withdrawn the article in a surprising move.
Da Luz is an acknowledged clairvoyant from Brazil. While many believe in him, others do not. He says he doesn’t care. He’s only trying to save lives, enabled through dreams to predict events. Da Luz predicted the death of Lady Diana in Paris. “I warned the authorities.”
In most of the earthquakes he predicted, there was no major tremor but instead several small ones. So did that make da Luz wrong or right?
“It’s not a matter of right or wrong. When I warn, I hope the authorities will take the necessary steps to help people be prepared. If it happens and nothing has been done and many people die, as in China, — yes, I predicted that would happen and told Beijing — well, that is a tragedy. If lives are saved, that’s wonderful. If nothing happens, because some small thing has somehow changed the future, that is even better.”
He stated further, “Many people assume I am concerned with making money. This is just not true. Mankind is more important than money. Money is a need not a want. Of course, with four small children I have to make enough for us all to survive.”
In his exact words (Click here for full excerpt), the famed psychic warned about the impending earthquake in Hong Kong on 23rd May:
‘The Hong Kong people have problems with a possible earthquake of 7.0 on the Richter scale on May 23, 2019 . Though , the place apparently had not strong earthquakes , Jucelino Luz tells that possibility is not ruled out. And it can bring great inconvenience to the people of Hong Kong , because the buildings are not prepared for an impact of this magnitude and some buildings can collapse. And it can impair communication services as well as terms that region can have many victims of innocent people . Below a map that was sent to the Executive Secretary of Hong Kong on March 14, 2014 . Accordingly , geologists they can make a further study of the area and measure the potential of this event to fruition . Moreover , they can somehow prepare the population there – if it were to happen because premonitory dreams are not predestination –even so, they will be all prepared to defend and / or protect such future tragedy.’
However, in his latest predictions for events happening in May 2019 published (Click here for his May predictions) on 29th April 2019, he deliberately omitted the Hong Kong earthquake prediction on 23rd May and instead, he forecasted that tornadoes will hit the US.
How Often Do Earthquakes Occur?
Earth is an active place and earthquakes are always happening somewhere. In fact, the National Earthquake Information Center locates about 12,000-14,000 earthquakes each year! On average, Magnitude 2 and smaller earthquakes occur several hundred times a day world wide. Major earthquakes, greater than magnitude 7, happen more than once per month. “Great earthquakes”, magnitude 8 and higher, occur about once a year.
If you look carefully at Da Luz’s earthquake predictions , he loves to pick earthquake-prone countries that fall with the seismic zone to increase his accuracy. We did some checks on 13 predictions (earthquakes and non-earthquake events) he made for May 2019 (please refer to the comparison table 1.1 below) and he only managed to get 3.5 predictions partially right. For most earthquakes, not only did he fail to correctly predict the magnitude but he also missed the exact location of the earthquake that happened in the particular country. The only non-earthquake incident which he almost got it right was his prediction of a terrorist attack killing more than 30 innocent people in Pakistan. A similar incident occurred two days before the date he predicted. A suicide bomber killed 10 people and injured 24 people outside Lahore in Pakistan (Read HERE for full news).
If we compare the statistics based on what actually happened and what Da Luz predicted, his predictions were barely 26.9% accurate (and we are assuming that he got 3.5 out of 13 predictions 100% right). In some cases, he even made his predictions based on the likelihood of recurrence of similar events that happened before in recent months.
Will an earthquake happen in Hong Kong on 23rd May? We think it is highly unlikely as Da Luz’s accuracy is less than 26.9% statistically and he purportedly omitted his 2014 Hong Kong earthquake prediction in his latest May 2019 list of predicted events made on 29th April 2019.
Hong Kong lies within the Eurasian Plate and is located rather far away from the nearest boundary with the Pacific Plate on the Circum-Pacific Seismic Belt that runs through Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines. The chance of a major local tremor is very small.
We think local media should not sensationalise Da Luz’s dated prediction to fan unnecessary panic amongst the public. In fact, we think that his revised probability of 35 per cent is overrated. There will not be any earthquake in Hong Kong on 23rd May.