17th August 2026 – (Hong Kong) Centaline Group founder Shih Wing-ching says Hong Kong’s home market has shifted from a recovery phase into a boom, after a correction from 2021 to 2024 gave way to a rebound from 2025 as end-users and investors returned.
Speaking at the Asia Investors Summit 2026, Mr Shih said turnover has clearly improved and some buyers are re-entering after seeing profitable deals, evidence in his view that residential property is now in the upward leg of the cycle. He divides the market into four stages — recovery, boom, crisis and slump — and placed Hong Kong firmly in the boom stage for now.
The next danger, he argued, comes when prices outrun what ordinary buyers can afford and only investors and speculators are left in the market — the threshold for a crisis. Timing matters more than the exact price paid, he stressed, and investors should not try to capture the final dollar of a rising market.
Mr Shih said property woes usually fall into three buckets: excess supply, excessive borrowing and prices that are too high. Overpriced markets are the easiest to fix because values can adjust; oversupply is the hardest. Hong Kong’s main difficulty, he said, was previously inflated prices rather than serious overbuilding or a debt bubble. About 65 per cent of owners have finished paying their mortgages and only around 35 per cent still owe banks, while the residential vacancy rate is roughly 4 per cent.
On the mainland, he said the core problem is supply outpacing demand, so clearing stock will take time. An earlier price reset would help the market adjust faster, but some areas restrict developers from cutting new-home prices to control financial risk, stretching the correction. Outside first-tier cities, he advised investors to stay cautious on mainland real estate.
