30th September 2026 – (New York) Bitcoin’s near‑term trajectory is more exposed to the prospect of another United States Federal Reserve rate increase in October than to the Senate’s stalled Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, according to Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group. Sun said the cryptocurrency’s direction is being set primarily by financial conditions — notably long‑dated Treasury yields, net flows into spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds and the build‑up of leverage in derivatives — rather than by the legislative timetable on market structure.
The Fed lifted its target range by a quarter point to 3.75–4.00 on 16th September, a move Sun believes was largely priced in, helping to explain why Bitcoin and wider crypto assets rallied after the announcement. He warned that an additional increase in October could prompt investors to reinterpret September’s move as the start of a sequence rather than a one‑off adjustment, a shift that could sap Bitcoin’s recent momentum. The central bank reiterated that inflation remains elevated and that the rise supports its two per cent goal, with all voting members backing the decision.
Sun said an October hike would tighten dollar liquidity and push up long‑term rates, potentially damping demand while amplifying any repositioning in ETFs and derivatives. He considers that combination more consequential for Bitcoin than the failed Senate procedural vote on 15th September, when a motion to proceed with the Clarity Act fell 49–50, short of the 60 votes required to end debate. In his view, the bill does not directly alter Bitcoin’s core attributes or immediate regulatory status; instead, it is intended to clarify the respective remits of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission across digital‑asset markets.
Even so, Sun noted that prolonged uncertainty over statutory rules could weigh on multi‑year capital commitments to crypto companies and market infrastructure, though he stressed that this is a longer‑term investment question rather than an imminent constraint on Bitcoin itself. Following September’s rate decision, Bitcoin briefly moved toward 75,000 dollars before consolidating around the 76,000–76,700 range, and later pulled back from the 87,000 area the following week as flows into United States spot Bitcoin ETFs fluctuated. Sun cautioned that short‑term ETF activity often follows price action and may not reliably foreshadow the next leg.
The Fed’s September projections placed the median year‑end policy rate at 4.1 per cent for 2026, up from 3.8 per cent in June, with most participants pencilling levels above the prevailing range while emphasising that individual submissions are not commitments for any specific meeting. Alongside resilient United States business surveys and recent commentary from Fed officials on inflation pressures, Sun said these factors have led traders to reassess the probability of another rise in October.