27th September 2026 – (New York) Fidelity’s director of global macro, Jurrien Timmer, has shifted from his cautious stance at the turn of the year, arguing that bitcoin is now pressing a critical resistance zone around $80,000 and could be entering a fresh four‑year cycle. In late December 2025 he suggested 2026 might be “a year off” for the asset, with support in the $65,000 to $75,000 band. That floor later gave way as prices dipped to $60,033 in early February and $57,742 in late June, before rebounding to challenge the ceiling he highlighted.
Timmer posted a weekly chart on 25th September describing a potential double bottom, with the neckline around $80,554 and prior peaks near $82,807. Using textbook measurement, the depth from the $57,742 trough to the neckline implies an objective of roughly $103,000, while a more conservative read frames $100,000 as the initial target. With bitcoin trading in the low‑$80,000s and recent weekly closes above $81,000, he said he is “sensing that a new four‑year cycle bull market is underway.”
The technical view arrives as other analysts also focus on the same threshold, including PlanB, who has tied an October path to six figures to bitcoin holding above about $80,500. Market pricing, however, remains cautious. Kalshi’s contracts put the probability of bitcoin exceeding $100,000 in 2026 at 39 per cent, down from 41 per cent a day earlier, with the $110,000 line priced at 20 per cent. Short‑term speculation has cooled more sharply, with interest fading in wagers on a push beyond $87,500 this month.
Spot demand appears steadier. United States spot bitcoin exchange‑traded funds recorded around $134 million of net inflows on 25th September, marking a seventh consecutive day of subscriptions led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). With price action compressing beneath resistance and flows still positive, traders are watching whether a decisive break above the $80,000 to $83,000 zone can confirm the pattern and open the way towards $100,000.