5th June 2023 – (Sydney) Global stocks rose on Monday, with Asian shares extending a rally on optimism that the U.S. Federal Reserve would pause its rate hikes this month. This was after a mixed U.S. jobs report, while oil prices jumped after Saudi Arabia pledged to make big output cuts in July.
Brent crude oil increased by $1.82, or 2.4%, to $77.95 a barrel, while U.S. crude climbed $1.77, or 2.4%, to $73.51. Oil prices had come under pressure recently amid concerns about China’s slowing economic recovery.
Oil prices rose after Saudi Arabia announced it would cut its output to 9 million barrels per day in July, from around 10 million bpd in May, the largest reduction in years. A broader OPEC+ deal to limit supply into 2024 also supported futures.
“We think Brent futures will rise to $US85/bbl by Q4 2023 even with a tepid demand recovery in China factored in,” said Vivek Dhar, a mining and energy commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
On Monday, Japan’s Nikkei surged 1% to a 33-year high, Australia’s resources-heavy shares gained 1%, and South Korea’s KOSPI rose 0.5%. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures dipped 0.1%, and Nasdaq futures dropped 0.3% in Asian hours, after a strong rally on Friday.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 1% on Friday, posting its sixth-straight week of gains, while the Dow Jones gained 2%, and the S&P 500 added 1.45%.
Data on Friday showed the U.S. economy added 339,000 jobs last month, higher than most estimates, bolstering expectations of Fed hikes in July, with markets tipping a 50% chance for that.
However, moderating wage growth and a rising jobless rate in Friday’s jobs report argued for a case of pause in June.
Markets are still leaning towards a rate pause from the Fed at the next policy meeting but have priced out almost any chance of a rate cut by the end of this year.
Yields on U.S. two-year Treasuries surged 16.2 basis points on Friday to 4.503%, and ten-years rose 8 bps to 3.6903%, partly driven by Fitch Ratings saying the U.S.’ “AAA” credit rating would remain on negative watch, despite the debt agreement.
That, in turn, helped the dollar gain 0.5% on Friday and stay elevated at 104.16 against its peers early on Monday. The greenback jumped 0.8% on the Japanese yen to 139.94, while the euro eased 0.5% to $1.0706.
The Australian dollar was an outperformer against a strong greenback, up 0.5% to $0.6605, on bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia will have to raise rates higher and for longer on domestic wage pressures.
The RBA will hold a policy meeting on Tuesday. In the wake of a strong increase in the minimum wages for the next financial year, markets are now split on whether it would hold rates steady or hike them further to 4.1%.
The Bank of Canada will meet on Wednesday. A majority of economists polled by Reuters expect the BOC to keep interest rates on hold at 4.5% for the rest of the year, but the risk of one more rate hike was high.
