7th July 2025 – (New York) Macro investor Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Bitmex and current leader of investment fund Maelstrom, has shared insights on Bitcoin’s price trajectory. On 2nd July, he suggested that while Bitcoin may temporarily retrace to between $90,000 and $95,000 due to the U.S. Treasury’s plans to replenish its Treasury General Account (TGA), a long-term rally towards $1 million is on the horizon.
Hayes noted that the Treasury’s strategy to issue new bonds to restore its TGA balance, following a debt ceiling increase, could temporarily reduce liquidity in the financial system, impacting asset prices. He explained:
“If the TGA refill results in a negative liquidity effect, Bitcoin could see a dip to the $90,000 to $95,000 range. Conversely, if the refill has minimal impact, Bitcoin may fluctuate within the $100,000s without breaking the previous all-time high of $112,000.”
While he expressed caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole meeting in August, which he views as a potential turning point, Hayes remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. He predicts a significant rise in digital assets driven by U.S. fiscal measures that could reflate markets without formal monetary easing.
Hayes cautioned investors awaiting clear policy signals from the Fed:
“You risk missing out on Bitcoin soaring to $1 million or the Nasdaq 100 climbing fivefold to 100,000 by 2028.”
He believes that Bitcoin will lead the charge, benefiting from liquidity expansion linked to fiscal operations rather than relying solely on monetary indicators.
Highlighting the importance of stablecoins in this liquidity influx, Hayes remarked, “Up to $10.1 trillion could eventually flow into the T-bill market due to these policies.” He referenced Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s approach, suggesting that by facilitating stablecoin issuance by large banks and potentially ending interest on reserves, the U.S. government is setting the stage for a significant capital influx into Treasuries, ultimately benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin.